Commentary by Titas Budreika, an economist at the Ministry of the Economy and Innovation, on the preliminary GDP estimate for the first quarter of 2026
With Lithuania’s gross domestic product (GDP) reaching €19.8 billion in the first quarter of this year (an increase of 2.5 percent compared to a year ago), Budreika says this indicates the stabilisation of the Lithuanian economy and a return to a more moderate annual growth rate.
‘In the first quarter of this year, we are seeing a steady stabilisation of the Lithuanian economy and a return to a more moderate annual growth rate.’ Although the economic momentum, especially in domestic consumption, recorded at the end of last year suggested a stronger start to this year was likely, the short-term surge is now being replaced by a more sustainable trend reflecting the economy’s current potential.
This rebalancing reflects the current economic situation: demand in key export markets has declined and European industry is facing energy pressures due to geopolitical events. Although domestic consumption still acts as a buffer, this driver alone will not be sufficient in the long term. Only structural changes will ensure the resilience of the Lithuanian economy, such as strengthening the competitiveness of exporters and investing in high-value production. It is precisely this plan to address these issues that the Ministry of Economy and Innovation presented to the Seimas Committee on Budget and Finance last week, and we are currently seeking consensus with the Ministry of Finance on the next steps,’ says T. Budreika, an economist at the Ministry of Economy and Innovation.
On Thursday, the State Data Agency announced that Lithuania’s GDP reached 19.8 billion euros in the first quarter of this year, which was 0.4 percent lower than in the last quarter of 2025, but 2.5 percent higher than a year ago.